Referrals work because somebody hands over your judgement before you ever meet. What we built does that from cold, on a schedule, while you get on with the work.
Analytics is a difficult thing to sell. The buyer usually cannot evaluate the work, the value is invisible until afterwards and often invisible then, the decision takes months and involves people we never meet, and half the organisations who need it do not know the category exists. We did not study that problem. We were stuck in it.
So we pointed twenty years of measurement discipline at our own marketing, and wrote down every one of the sixty steps it took. You can read all of them for five dollars. Or we build the machine and run it for you:
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WHY THIS HAPPENS TO PEOPLE WHO ARE GOOD AT THINGS
Work arrives in a pattern you did not choose. Someone you helped four years ago mentions your name at a dinner. A former colleague moves and brings you in. It is good work, because people who arrive by referral arrive already convinced — but you cannot decide in March that you would like more of it by June. Your pipeline is weather, and you have spent years learning to describe weather as though it were a plan. Three things cause that, and they compound.
Understanding what makes you different takes hours, not minutes. It does not survive compression into a website or a profile, because your edge lives in twenty years of judgement calls and there is no fast way to hand that to a stranger.
A high price needs trust in an outcome that has not happened yet, from somebody who cannot evaluate the work even after it is done. Nobody buys a five-figure engagement from a stranger on the strength of a claim.
Even once they believe you, three things must be true at once: budget, approval, and your exact piece of work having just become their problem. You cannot manufacture that coincidence. You can only be known and trusted when it arrives.
A referral solves all three at once — somebody transferred the context and vouched for the outcome in a sentence over a coffee, and it tends to arrive in the week the need does. It cannot be turned up, which is why you are stuck. Everything we built exists to manufacture the same conditions, from cold, on a schedule.
SO WE TRIED EVERYTHING — AND WE MEAN EVERYTHING
Not a survey of the market. This is our own money, over years, on our own problem — which is what a firm does when it is good at something and cannot get found.
Shaded: the parts that survived.
The pitch is familiar: thirty leads a month or you pay nothing. Underneath it is a retainer of five or six thousand a month, plus a minimum advertising spend of around ten thousand — which is your money, and runs whether anything works or not. The guarantee sits over the retainer. It is silent about the spend.
Then the part you only learn by paying for it. A lead, in the definition that matters — theirs — is any response to a message. Would you like to see a case study? People say yes, because yes costs nothing and no feels rude. Thirty of those a month barely counts as work, so the number is always hit, the guarantee never triggers, and the retainer is always earned.
Ninety rows, and the argument is whether they count. You lose it, because the definition was written by the people you are having it with.
The guarantee, had it triggered, covered the fees. It had nothing to say about the thirty thousand of your own money that went through the ad account while those fees were being earned. That is the part that hurt, and it is the part left with you.
It insures the smaller half of your loss, against a miss the vendor gets to define. It is written over their revenue, not over your risk — which is exactly why it costs them nothing to offer.
And being more careful next time does not fix it either.
Everyone in this market says the same words — case studies, logos, testimonials, a carefully worded guarantee. A bad operator says them as confidently as a good one, usually with better slides. None of it costs anything to say, which means none of it tells you anything. You are not bad at choosing. You are being asked to evaluate something that cannot be evaluated from the outside. That single sentence is why we published the entire method instead of describing it.
WHAT WE BELIEVE, AND MOST OF OUR INDUSTRY DOES NOT
Figures below cover ads with at least 500 impressions, because a rate on fewer than that is noise. The product every agency actually sells is insight. They know what works. They have a feel for it. They have seen a thousand accounts and will bring that judgement to yours. We spent several years testing that proposition, mostly by discovering we were wrong. Every one of these was a case where the sensible reading, the one an experienced person arrives at confidently, was not slightly off. It was backwards.
Marketing presents as something you would fix by finding the person who knows, and that is what is sold across our industry: a framework nobody else has, an angle, a hack that is working right now. We looked for those for twenty years, on our own money, and they do not exist.
Knowledge problems are solved by finding the right person to tell you. Testing problems are solved by doing sixty things in order, instrumenting each one, and letting the numbers tell you which of your opinions to drop. Solving this is a data science problem more than a marketing one, which is why so few marketing firms solve it.
An agency that has never been wrong has never measured. We can show you sixteen times we were, with the numbers. Ask how many vendors have ever shown you one.
WHY WE ARE THE ONES WRITING THIS
Because we had your problem, badly, for about twenty years. We did not study it — we were stuck in it, and a firm that spends two decades being good at something and invisible for it eventually has to solve the problem properly instead of intuitively.
It demoed beautifully and topped out at about fifty percent accuracy in production, after real money and two years had gone into it. We wrote the kill verdict down instead of quietly reallocating people and hoping.
That document is more use to us now than the product would have been — and it is the same instinct that produces a page like this one.
Payments, reporting, marketing, support, quality control. The advertising account grades itself against the payment ledger overnight and says which of our opinions were wrong while we were asleep. A client’s compliance report assembles itself from live data every week without anybody touching it. We are not describing a method we admire. We are describing the one we are standing inside.
TWENTY YEARS OF PROBABILITY AND BEHAVIOURAL ANALYSIS, FOR ORGANISATIONS LIKE THESE
WHAT WE DO FOR PEOPLE WHO WOULD RATHER NOT
That is what a referral does, and it is the only thing that has ever reliably worked for people who sell what you sell. We build the whole machine and you pay for the people it delivers. Forty-one of the sixty are a machine’s job, twelve need your judgement rather than your time, and the remaining seven are ours to do by hand. The year it takes to find out which is which is a year of the work you are actually good at — so we do it, on your business, and carry the risk of it while we do.
Nothing to build it. You pay per named buyer, at a price locked before we start. If our cost to acquire them rises, that is ours to absorb, not yours.
No setup fee, no retainer, no percentage of ad spend, and no minimum spend of your money running in the background. We do not bill for effort, because effort is our problem. You prepay a refundable balance and we draw it down only as leads actually land. That risk transfer is the product — everything else is how it gets delivered.
A refundable balance, drawn down only as named buyers land.
That is the list.
We have written that out in full because it is the offer. Read it back and notice what is missing: there is no month in which you are paying us and nothing has arrived. That month is the one every retainer is built out of, and it is the reason this is priced the way it is.
If we are wrong about your arithmetic, we find out on our money, in our ad account, before you have paid for a single name. That is not generosity. It is the only structure that lets us mean the price we quoted.
Write your book, build the funnel, and run the media on our own ad accounts. All sixty steps, on your business — you do the twelve that need you.
A named person who paid for your book and is on your list. Not an impression, not a click, and emphatically not a reply to would you like to see a case study.
Everything up to the handoff happens in our systems, so a lead is countable in a payment ledger. Nothing to adjudicate, and no definition for you to lose an argument about.
The book, the site and every lead — including if you leave. Month to month, no minimum term, no exit fee.
How many people could ever buy from you. A wide market and a single vertical are different machines, not one machine at two prices, so there is no rate card.
The twelve steps no software will do — the judgement only somebody who knows your field can bring. We bring the machine, you bring that. Neither half works alone.
A written verdict inside five business days: yes at a named volume and price, or no with the numbers that make it a no. An honest no is the deliverable, not a failed sale. It is real work, so it is not free — and if it is a yes, what you paid comes off the engagement in full. We offer it to people who have read the book, because we would rather you understood the method before we ran your numbers.
You already have the whole method for five dollars. If you hire us and we get it wrong, you know exactly what we were supposed to do, step by step, with the failure mode written next to each one. That is the opposite of every agency relationship you have been in, and it is why we published it.
You keep the manuscript files, the cover, the site, the domain, the list and the ad creative, in the formats they were built in, handed over inside ten business days of you asking. Not a login to something of ours. We hold the ad accounts and the machine that runs them; you hold everything with your name on it, and it is in the agreement before you commit to anything.
No. It comes off the engagement in full, which means the diagnosis was free and you got a written second opinion on your own arithmetic for nothing. If it is a no, you keep the arithmetic and we keep nothing.
We do not run this from a call — you will have noticed we said nothing to schedule twice already, and we meant it. Everybody who ends up working with us reads the book first, because we would rather you understood what you were handing over before you handed it over, and because a good share of readers discover at step 3 that they should not hand it over at all.
When you have read it, we will offer to run your numbers properly: five business days, a written yes at a named volume and price, or a no with the arithmetic that makes it a no. It is real work so it is not free, and if it is a yes what you paid comes off the engagement in full. We only offer it to people who have read the book, which is most of the reason the book costs five dollars and not nothing.
Read the method — $5A question the page did not answer? ryan@onwardsanalytics.com.au
THE CASE STUDY — WE SET OURSELVES THE PROBLEM FIRST
We had the problem, so we took one of our own businesses and gave it the whole method — no shortcuts, no borrowed template, every asset built from nothing. “We built a funnel” is exactly the kind of claim that costs nothing to make, so here is what it actually meant. All of it is live at onwardslabs.io, and you are welcome to go and pull any of it apart.
Most of these are the unglamorous ones. Nobody sells a course on making sure a campaign parameter survives into a payment record, which is precisely why almost nobody has one.
Three rebuilds, not one. The first two were wrong in ways only running them could reveal, and the third still carried bugs the first two had taught us to look for. That is the honest shape of this work, and it is the reason the engagement is priced the way it is.
WHY WE CAN AFFORD TO CARRY THAT RISK
Because that is what the challenge above returned, and we counted every dollar of it. Labs was not the only thing we put through the account either — between January and September seven of our own products ran through it, across 46 campaigns and 2,128 ads, every dollar ours. Six did not work. One did.
Both rows are books, sold out of the same account on the same pixel. Sixteen campaigns sold seven copies between them; the four with all sixty steps behind them sold ninety-nine. Thirty times the rate. The three rows add up to the whole account — 46 campaigns, 24,221 clicks, 108 buyers — so nothing has been left out to make the gap look bigger.
So a book is not the mechanism. Publishing one and hoping is how you get the middle row.
One product runs its own funnel and may never have reported to this pixel. One converts inside a free chat rather than at a checkout. Several campaigns were traffic or lead buys never optimised for a purchase at all.
Reading those as sales failures would be judging a test against an intent it never had — step 58, and we are not going to break our own rule to make a chart look better.
AND WHAT THAT ACTUALLY COST
You cannot buy this by spending money on advertising — that is what we tried first, and it is most of the list further up. What it actually cost was years, two people who do this for a living rather than as a side project, and three complete rebuilds of the machine underneath, each one because the build before it was wrong in a way only running it could reveal.
Measured on our own funnel, 1 January to 31 August: A$48.72 to acquire a book buyer, A$31 back per buyer from the book and its two add-ons — that is the four campaigns above, the same ones that produced the ninety-nine. Roughly two-thirds of the media returns before we bill a client anything, which is steps 3 and 50 and the reason the offer can exist at all.
One thing that number is not: the price. What we spend to acquire a name is our arithmetic, not yours. Yours is what a client is worth to you over their whole life with you, multiplied by how often a book buyer becomes one — and for the people this works for, those two numbers are not close. A firm that has published its own costs is not the same as a firm that prices off them.
That is what lets us quote a fixed price per lead and mean it.
We already know what acquisition cost does when it moves, because we have paid to find out repeatedly. You do not repeat the years. You get the machine on day one and you pay for what it delivers.
You have proved you can sell a five-dollar book to people like me. You have not proved that a person who buys my book becomes a client of mine.
That is correct, and it is the right question. We can show you the front half in full — that a book at the end of sixty steps sells thirty times better than our earlier ones did without them, out of the same account, on the same pixel. We cannot yet show you the back half on somebody else’s business, because we have been the somebody else. The first cohort is the first cohort, and pretending otherwise would be the exact behaviour this page spends four thousand words objecting to.
What we can do is refuse to guess. Step 3 of the book computes what a book buyer is worth to you, from your own figures, before anybody has spent a dollar. The verdict runs it properly and returns a yes at a named volume and price, or a no with the arithmetic attached. If the number does not carry, you will hear it from us in five days — and we would rather lose the engagement there than find out together in the ninth month, on your list, with your name on the book.
The names further up are twenty years of analytics work, and they are the reason we can read a number properly. They are not evidence that we can fill your pipeline, and we are not going to pretend otherwise — nobody should buy this because BHP appears on a page. What is evidence is the funnel you are standing in, with every figure from it published, including the sixteen places it went wrong. A small machine you have counted honestly beats a big one you have not, and every claim here was cheap for us to check and is cheap for you to doubt.
WHETHER THIS IS YOU — AND MOSTLY IT IS NOT
Fit is one number: what a customer is worth to you over their lifetime, multiplied by how often a book buyer becomes one. Lifetime value, never the size of a single deal. A firm selling million-dollar engagements that closes one a year from a huge pool is a worse fit than a smaller service that closes often and repeats.
Take what a client is worth to you over their whole life with you. Multiply it by the share of book buyers who become one. That is what a name is worth to you — and it is the number we quote against, never the size of a single deal and never our own costs.
If a client is worth thirty thousand to you over three years and one book buyer in two hundred becomes one, a name is worth a hundred and fifty dollars to you. If it is one in a thousand, it is thirty. Those are different machines carrying different prices, which is why there is no rate card and why we will not guess in front of you.
Run it yourself before you speak to us. It is steps 2 and 3 of the book, and the model is the forty-seven-dollar add-on if you would rather not build it.
Most businesses do not clear that sum, and we would rather tell you inside five days than take your money and find out together in five months.
THE FOURTH BOOK, AND THE ONLY ONE ABOUT THE MACHINE ITSELF
All sixty steps in the order they have to happen, each with its tools, its failure mode and whether it can be automated. Where a step cost us money to learn, the amount is in the text. Nothing is held back for the engagement — forty-one of the sixty run without a person, but only because there is real software underneath that has been wrong many times and corrected each time, and that is the part you cannot get from a prompt.
About ninety-nine readers in a hundred will take what is in here and use it without ever speaking to us. Some will run the whole thing themselves. Some will hand it to somebody they already employ and finally know what to ask for. Some will reach step 3, do the arithmetic, find their numbers do not work, and save themselves a year and a great deal of money. Every one of those is a win, not a consolation prize.
Perhaps one in a hundred will finish it, look at how much of it there is, and decide they would rather hand it over. That is the other win, and it is the one this is built to earn. It only works because it is almost wastefully generous to the ninety-nine — you either give it all away or you do not.
ONE OF THE SIXTY, IN FULL, SO YOU CAN JUDGE THE OTHER FIFTY-NINE
Three requirements, every one of which fails quietly if you get it wrong. Miss it and every sale becomes un-creditable to any campaign — not less accurate, impossible. This is the step behind the $0 in link 06.
Edge middleware, which every modern host provides. Cookies, never local storage — the server has to be able to read them. And your payment provider’s metadata field: the most underused feature in commerce tooling.
Overwriting a stored campaign with an empty one, which is the most common version. Metadata field limits, which are real and low. Redirects that drop the query string. Any checkout on a different domain.
Fully automatable, and it should be. But verify it by hand before every launch by making a real purchase through a real ad. Five minutes — the single highest-value manual check in the book.
Reason it, then verify with a purchase. The design is knowable; whether your specific stack drops the value somewhere along the way is not, and one test transaction settles it.
All sixty are written out like this. That is what the 179 pages are.
THE WAY IN
PDF, sent to whatever email you use at checkout, usually within a minute. Read step 3 first — ten minutes, one number you already know — and if it comes out wrong you have saved yourself a year. That is a real outcome, and it is the most common one.
TWO OPTIONAL ADD-ONS — BOTH SEPARATE WORK, NEITHER HELD BACK FROM THE BOOK
Refundable on request · No email required to read this page · Nothing to schedule
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ENGAGEMENT
It depends entirely on how many people could ever buy from you, because a wide market and a single vertical are different machines rather than one machine at two prices. We will not quote a number before running your arithmetic, and putting a rate card here would be exactly the guessing this whole page argues against. The written verdict names the volume and the price together, because neither means anything alone.
Then we will tell you, and that is the end of our commercial interest in you — worth saying out loud, because it is unusual. It is not the end of yours. The number that decides it is step 3, and the model that computes it is the forty-seven-dollar add-on at checkout, which is the same model we run. Most people who fail step 3 fail on frequency rather than deal size — how often a buyer becomes a client, not what a client is worth. That is a fixable thing, and it is fixable by you, in the book, without us. A no from us is a finding about this month, not a verdict on your business.
A named person who paid for your book and is on your list. Not an impression, not a click, not a form-fill from somebody who wanted a free PDF. Everything up to the handoff happens inside our systems, so it is countable in a payment ledger rather than argued about in a monthly report.
Because we have already paid to learn what it does when it moves, on eight of our own products over eight months, and because the front end funds itself — the book and its add-ons return roughly half of what the advertising costs before we bill a client anything. Anybody who needs a retainer before touching your account is telling you their own front end does not work.
No. Your leads are yours, along with the book and the website, and you keep all of it if you leave. Month to month, no minimum term, no exit fee. We keep the machine that produces them and the front-end revenue that funds the advertising — and we put that in writing before you commit to anything.
Onwards Analytics has been doing analytics work for large organisations for two decades, across seven businesses and more than a hundred technical projects. This particular machine — book, funnel, media, all sixty steps — we built for ourselves first, over years, and rebuilt three times. That is where every number on this page comes from. We would rather tell you that plainly than show you a wall of logos, because a wall of logos is exactly the kind of claim that costs nothing to make and tells you nothing, which is the argument the whole page rests on. Judge the work; it is five dollars to check.
Because knowing the sixty and doing the sixty are not the same job. Most readers will do a handful and stop, which is not a criticism — it is what happens when you already have work to deliver. The ones who go and build the whole thing themselves were never going to hire anybody, and we would rather find that out at five dollars than at the end of a sales process.
No. Every step on that list is in the book in enough detail to execute. The two add-ons at checkout are separate pieces of work — one live funnel’s actual assets, and a working spreadsheet — not chapters removed from the book to create a reason to buy them.
Ryan Richardson and Dan Rodgers, of Onwards Analytics. We each wrote the parts we actually run — Dan the market and positioning half, Ryan the build and instrumentation half — and every section says which of us is talking. The figures throughout are from our own firm’s ad account and payment ledger.
We solved it properly in the end, because we had to, and then wrote down all sixty steps so you could check the work before letting us near your business. Five dollars for the method. Or we build it, run it on our own ad accounts, and you pay per named book buyer at a price we lock before we start — nothing to build it, nothing while it is being built, and everything yours if you leave.